What Is A Stalling Hurricane? | NBC News Now


MORE COMMON. ALEXA LETO SHOWS US WHY STORMS ALEXA LETO SHOWS US WHY STORMS LIKE DORIAN ARE HAPPENING MORE LIKE DORIAN ARE HAPPENING MORE OFTEN. OFTEN.>>I’M CURIOUS WHAT YOU’RE>>I’M CURIOUS WHAT YOU’RE SEEING RIGHT NOW WITH HURRICANE SEEING RIGHT NOW WITH HURRICANE DORIAN IN TERMS OF ITS SPEED. DORIAN IN TERMS OF ITS SPEED. YOU’VE SEEN IT SLOW DOWN AND I’M YOU’VE SEEN IT SLOW DOWN AND I’M CURIOUS WHAT THAT MEANS TO YOU CURIOUS WHAT THAT MEANS TO YOU IN TERMS OF ITS IMPACT. IN TERMS OF ITS IMPACT.>>IT’S ESSENTIALLY COMPLETELY>>IT’S ESSENTIALLY COMPLETELY STALLED OVER THE NORTHERN STALLED OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS MOVING AT ABOUT 1 KNOT, BAHAMAS MOVING AT ABOUT 1 KNOT, KIND OF LIKE A REALLY SLOW WALK KIND OF LIKE A REALLY SLOW WALK THROUGH THE PARK. THROUGH THE PARK. STORMS THAT DON’T MOVE ARE MORE STORMS THAT DON’T MOVE ARE MORE HAZARDOUS STORMS. HAZARDOUS STORMS. THE RAINFALL IS JUST SITTING THE RAINFALL IS JUST SITTING THERE DUMPING RAIN ON A THERE DUMPING RAIN ON A PARTICULAR LOCATION FOR A LONGER PARTICULAR LOCATION FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME SO YOU HAVE MORE PERIOD OF TIME SO YOU HAVE MORE ACCUMULATED RAINFALL, YOU GET ACCUMULATED RAINFALL, YOU GET THOSE WINDS DRIVING A WALL OF THOSE WINDS DRIVING A WALL OF WATER, THE SURGE ON TO THE COAST WATER, THE SURGE ON TO THE COAST FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME SO FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME SO YOU GET MORE CUMULATIVE WIND YOU GET MORE CUMULATIVE WIND DAMAGE BECAUSE IT’S THERE FOR A DAMAGE BECAUSE IT’S THERE FOR A LONGER TIME. LONGER TIME. STALLING STORMS ARE REALLY STALLING STORMS ARE REALLY PRETTY HAZARDOUS. PRETTY HAZARDOUS. IF YOU ARE GOING TO HAVE A IF YOU ARE GOING TO HAVE A HURRICANE HIT YOU, YOU WOULD HURRICANE HIT YOU, YOU WOULD PROBABLY RATHER HAVE IT BLOW PROBABLY RATHER HAVE IT BLOW THROUGH YOU QUICKLY THAN STALL THROUGH YOU QUICKLY THAN STALL ON TOP OF YOU. ON TOP OF YOU.>>A WHAT PATTERNS HAVE LED TO>>A WHAT PATTERNS HAVE LED TO THIS? THIS?>>FLORENCE WAS STALLING, WE>>FLORENCE WAS STALLING, WE WERE LOOKING BACK AT HARVEY AND WERE LOOKING BACK AT HARVEY AND INTERESTED TO SEE WAS THERE A INTERESTED TO SEE WAS THERE A TREND WHERE STORMS ARE COMING AT TREND WHERE STORMS ARE COMING AT INCREASED FREQUENCY AND INCREASED FREQUENCY AND STALLING. STALLING. MY COLLEAGUE HAD WRITTEN A PAPER MY COLLEAGUE HAD WRITTEN A PAPER THE YEAR BEFORE THAT SHOWED THAT THE YEAR BEFORE THAT SHOWED THAT ON A GLOBAL SCALE STORMS WERE ON ON A GLOBAL SCALE STORMS WERE ON AVERAGE MOVING MORE SLOWLY SINCE AVERAGE MOVING MORE SLOWLY SINCE THE MID 20th CENTURY ROUGHLY. THE MID 20th CENTURY ROUGHLY. THEY DON’T MOVE MORE SLOWLY ON THEY DON’T MOVE MORE SLOWLY ON AVERAGE, LIKE THEY WERE MOVING AVERAGE, LIKE THEY WERE MOVING 10 MILES PER HOUR, NOW THEY’RE 10 MILES PER HOUR, NOW THEY’RE MOVING 8 MILES PER HOUR, ALL OF MOVING 8 MILES PER HOUR, ALL OF THEM. THEM. ACTUALLY, THE DOWNWARD TREND IN ACTUALLY, THE DOWNWARD TREND IN THEIR RATE OF PROPAGATION IS THEIR RATE OF PROPAGATION IS GIVEN IN PART BY AN INCREASED GIVEN IN PART BY AN INCREASED TENDENCY TO STALL OUT, SO THAT TENDENCY TO STALL OUT, SO THAT DRIVES THE AVERAGE DOWN, BUT DRIVES THE AVERAGE DOWN, BUT REALLY IT’S THE STALLS THAT ARE REALLY IT’S THE STALLS THAT ARE THE MOST HAZARDOUS. THE MOST HAZARDOUS. WE LOOKED AND WE HAD — WE LOOKED AND WE HAD –>>HOW DO YOU DEFINE A STALL?>>HOW DO YOU DEFINE A STALL?>>WHAT WE DECIDED WAS IF THE>>WHAT WE DECIDED WAS IF THE STORM SPENDS 48 OR MORE HOURS IN STORM SPENDS 48 OR MORE HOURS IN A REGION WITH A 200 KILOMETER A REGION WITH A 200 KILOMETER RADIUS. RADIUS. ON AVERAGE A FEW PERCENT OF ON AVERAGE A FEW PERCENT OF STORMS IN THE ATLANTIC WILL STORMS IN THE ATLANTIC WILL STALL LIKE THAT, BUT THAT STALL LIKE THAT, BUT THAT PERCENTAGE SEEMS TO BE PERCENTAGE SEEMS TO BE INCREASING IN TIME. INCREASING IN TIME.>>ONE OF THE OBVIOUS QUESTIONS>>ONE OF THE OBVIOUS QUESTIONS WHEN WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE WHEN WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF HURRICANES TO LIKELIHOOD OF HURRICANES TO STALL, IS WHY? STALL, IS WHY? WHY ARE THEY EVEN MORE LIKELY TO WHY ARE THEY EVEN MORE LIKELY TO STALL? STALL? WHAT ARE THE WEATHER PATTERNS WHAT ARE THE WEATHER PATTERNS THAT ARE CREATING THIS THAT ARE CREATING THIS ATMOSPHERE? ATMOSPHERE?>>WE CAN LOOK AT THIS>>WE CAN LOOK AT THIS METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS THAT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS THAT ARE LEADING TO THE STALLING ARE LEADING TO THE STALLING EVENTS OF THAT PARTICULAR STORM. EVENTS OF THAT PARTICULAR STORM. THE OTHER QUESTION IS IN THE THE OTHER QUESTION IS IN THE LONG TERM OVER MANY DECADES WHAT LONG TERM OVER MANY DECADES WHAT WOULD BE CAUSING CHANGES, A WOULD BE CAUSING CHANGES, A TREND IN THOSE METEOROLOGICAL TREND IN THOSE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS THAT WOULD LEAD TO, CONDITIONS THAT WOULD LEAD TO, YOU KNOW, A GREATER CHANCE OF YOU KNOW, A GREATER CHANCE OF STALLING. STALLING. THE QUESTION, WELL, WHY ARE YOU THE QUESTION, WELL, WHY ARE YOU GETTING A TREND OVER MANY YEARS. GETTING A TREND OVER MANY YEARS.>>THAT WAS MY NEXT QUESTION.>>THAT WAS MY NEXT QUESTION. I MEAN, YEAH, WHY ARE YOU I MEAN, YEAH, WHY ARE YOU GETTING A TREND OVER MANY YEARS? GETTING A TREND OVER MANY YEARS?>>SO THAT IS A REALLY — IT’S A>>SO THAT IS A REALLY — IT’S A DEEP QUESTION AND UNFORTUNATELY DEEP QUESTION AND UNFORTUNATELY I HAVE TO SAY THAT IT’S REALLY I HAVE TO SAY THAT IT’S REALLY AT OR SLIGHTLY BEYOND OUR AT OR SLIGHTLY BEYOND OUR UNDERSTANDING OF HURRICANES AND UNDERSTANDING OF HURRICANES AND THE CHANGING CLIMATE. THE CHANGING CLIMATE. I’D LIKE TO TALK ABOUT THE I’D LIKE TO TALK ABOUT THE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON HURRICANE HAZARD AS KIND OF A HURRICANE HAZARD AS KIND OF A HIERARCHY FROM WHAT WE KNOW BEST HIERARCHY FROM WHAT WE KNOW BEST TO WHAT IS THE MOST SPECULATIVE. TO WHAT IS THE MOST SPECULATIVE. WHAT WE KNOW BEST IS ACTUALLY WHAT WE KNOW BEST IS ACTUALLY NOT EVEN RELATED TO CLIMATE NOT EVEN RELATED TO CLIMATE CHANGE AS SUCH, BUT IT’S MORE CHANGE AS SUCH, BUT IT’S MORE POPULATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE IN POPULATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE IN HARM’S WAY IS GOING TO GET MORE HARM’S WAY IS GOING TO GET MORE DAMAGE, RIGHT? DAMAGE, RIGHT? NUMBER TWO IS THAT ONE OF THE NUMBER TWO IS THAT ONE OF THE MOST ROBUST PROJECTIONS OF A MOST ROBUST PROJECTIONS OF A CHANGING CLIMATE IS INCREASED CHANGING CLIMATE IS INCREASED SEA LEVEL. SEA LEVEL. EVEN IF HURRICANE STATISTICS EVEN IF HURRICANE STATISTICS WEREN’T CHANGING YOU ARE JUST WEREN’T CHANGING YOU ARE JUST BLOWING THE SAME WINDS OVER A BLOWING THE SAME WINDS OVER A HIGHER BASELINE OF WATER YOU’RE HIGHER BASELINE OF WATER YOU’RE GOING TO GET DEEPER FLOOD GOING TO GET DEEPER FLOOD PENETRATION. PENETRATION. THAT’S ROBUST. THAT’S ROBUST. NUMBER THREE, ALMOST AS ROBUST, NUMBER THREE, ALMOST AS ROBUST, IS THE FACT THAT YOU GET MORE IS THE FACT THAT YOU GET MORE RAINFALL IN A WARMER CLIMATE RAINFALL IN A WARMER CLIMATE BECAUSE A WARMER AIR CAN HOLD BECAUSE A WARMER AIR CAN HOLD MORE WATER IN THE VAPOR FORM. MORE WATER IN THE VAPOR FORM. WHEN THE CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT AS WHEN THE CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT AS THEY ARE TO MATURE HURRICANES THEY ARE TO MATURE HURRICANES YOU ARE GOING TO DUMP MORE RAIN. YOU ARE GOING TO DUMP MORE RAIN. ONCE WE GET BELOW THAT WE GET TO ONCE WE GET BELOW THAT WE GET TO SORT OF SOME LESS CERTAIN, MORE SORT OF SOME LESS CERTAIN, MORE SPECULATIVE AND THAT’S ABOUT SPECULATIVE AND THAT’S ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON STORM’S PROPAGATION INCLUDING STORM’S PROPAGATION INCLUDING SLOWING DOWN THE TRANSLATION SLOWING DOWN THE TRANSLATION RATE AND STALLING. RATE AND STALLING. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE BUT IT’S THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE BUT IT’S CONTENTIOUS RIGHT NOW IN THE CONTENTIOUS RIGHT NOW IN THE COMMUNITY BUT THERE IS SOME COMMUNITY BUT THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE LARGE SCALE EVIDENCE THAT THE LARGE SCALE WIND PATTERNS IN THE TROPICAL WIND PATTERNS IN THE TROPICAL REGIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE REGIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE SLOWING DOWN AND IT’S NOT CLEAR SLOWING DOWN AND IT’S NOT CLEAR WHY THIS IS HAPPENING, BUT IT WHY THIS IS HAPPENING, BUT IT COULD BE BECAUSE OF CHANGING COULD BE BECAUSE OF CHANGING PATTERNS AND VERTICAL PATTERNS AND VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN THE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO A WARMING ATMOSPHERE DUE TO A WARMING CLIMATE AND THAT HAS AN IMPACT CLIMATE AND THAT HAS AN IMPACT THROUGH A LONG CHAIN OF CAUSE THROUGH A LONG CHAIN OF CAUSE AND EFFECT. AND EFFECT.>>OKAY.>>OKAY.>>LARGE SCALE WIND PATTERNS IN>>LARGE SCALE WIND PATTERNS IN THE TROPICS. THE TROPICS.>>SO THERE IS THAT –>>SO THERE IS THAT –>>THERE ARE A LOT OF I’S TO DOT>>THERE ARE A LOT OF I’S TO DOT AND T’S TO CROSS. AND T’S TO CROSS.>>THERE IS THE ONE STRAIN OF>>THERE IS THE ONE STRAIN OF THINKING THAT LEADS IT BACK TO A THINKING THAT LEADS IT BACK TO A WARMING CLIMATE. WARMING CLIMATE.>>WE HAVE A POSSIBLE SUSPECT,>>WE HAVE A POSSIBLE SUSPECT, WE DON’T HAVE ANY OTHER SUSPECTS

5 Replies to “What Is A Stalling Hurricane? | NBC News Now”

  1. The Europeans race always give knowledge, the 400 years expire in August 20, slavery three days of darkness, scripture, more to come for America, rain fire, money collapse ,the messiah the removal of the wicked race…..

  2. This was interesting and informative! He really explained it in words I could understand. I feel very sad for the Bahama's. Complete devastation. There's just no way to rebuild all that.
    The money to rebuild, where is all of that coming from? I was wondering why it stalled, because this isn't the first hurricane to do this. Good job, thank you for explaining it so well.

  3. Well well NASA GISS propagana. Sea Levels aren't rising, temperatures aren't warming Mr. Hall; YOUR OWN OBSERVED DATA saya just that!

    And then to make a veiled allusion to CO2 as the cause of stalling hurricanes is ludicrous; does he even know how the upper atmospheric currents work? He even makes a veiled dig at more people and more infrastructure being a bad thing.

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